Often an operation at sea such as piracy has a sequence of key events. Certain processes require a critical sequence, interrelationship and necessary time for initiation and completion of each function. Risk mitigation and risk management involves an agile process of understanding the sequence of processes and systematically breaking causal chains and reducing the awareness of the pirates and their capabilities to coordinate over-the-horizon operations. Creating functional delays and disrupting the decision cycle and its synchronization with the overall key processes become an attractive means of breaking or inhibiting the causal chain. For the purposes of this discussion a causal chain infers sequence and order - one event must occur before another or in conjunction with another sequence of otherwise independent activities and in a specified sequence of actions, providing a momentum for the success of the perpetrator or defender.
FMEA can provide an orderly process to analyze each step along a sequence of steps necessary to gain an end game or condition. Where several independent but parallel activities are necessary in the evolution, FMEA provides a side by side perspective of multiple functions and activities through te use of a timeline.
FMEA assigns relative weights to the degree of risk along each step of a critical sequence of functions. This assists the risk analyst in determining the best payoffs in time and place of intervention to break the causal chain.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Example of FMEA
Fault = Maritime piracy is endemic due to a general long term weakness of law enforcement and loss of legitimate occupational alternatives for itnerant fishermen faced with the collapse of coastal fisheries.
Mode = Piracy becomes an acceptable and respected profession within the coastal economy. Such activities fall under the control and protection of multigenerational family and tribal organizations. Local business enterprises grow in support of supporting criminal pirate activities. Piracy takes on a more sophisticated nature with open access to high technology and ample weaponry. Barriers to entering piracy profession are low due to the fact that raids can be executed swiftly, relatively simple weapons are effective and targeted vessels do not employ violent measures to defend themselves. Naval vessels from international counterpiracy task forces lack cohesion, consistent rules of engagement, and the necessary coverage to prevent most attacks by pirates.
Effects = Ships carrying UN food aid to impoverished people in Eastern Africa are hijacked and crews are kidnapped and held hostage for ransom or sold into the slave trade.
Mode = Piracy becomes an acceptable and respected profession within the coastal economy. Such activities fall under the control and protection of multigenerational family and tribal organizations. Local business enterprises grow in support of supporting criminal pirate activities. Piracy takes on a more sophisticated nature with open access to high technology and ample weaponry. Barriers to entering piracy profession are low due to the fact that raids can be executed swiftly, relatively simple weapons are effective and targeted vessels do not employ violent measures to defend themselves. Naval vessels from international counterpiracy task forces lack cohesion, consistent rules of engagement, and the necessary coverage to prevent most attacks by pirates.
Effects = Ships carrying UN food aid to impoverished people in Eastern Africa are hijacked and crews are kidnapped and held hostage for ransom or sold into the slave trade.
FMEA
Fault Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA):
This methodology is used frequently by engineers to dissect physical systems and contemplate a variety of scenarios whereby things can go wrong. FMEA was first used in reliability, accident or failure analysis and vulnerability assessments. FMEA has found new life in aiding scientists, operators and policy makers to improve their understanding , awareness of uncertainty and risk-based decision-making processes. It is highly adaptable to the use of subject matter experts and terrorist scenarios where the event must be declared without resort to the requirement to determine the likelihood of such a scenario. This drives the design process to meet appropriate thresholds determined by the scenarios themselves.
FMEA analyzes how serious or dangerous is the effect that can be caused by a specific component or subsystem that goes wrong. FMEA works well with cascading failures and causality. Causality can be introduced in an FMEA construct by starting with a prevailing or design envelope determined, general hazardous environment that provides the catalyst for events or incidents to occur with often serious consequences. FMEA usually bypasses the question - How likely is it expected to happen? This is convenient for analysis of highly unlikely scenarios that, should they occur, result in horrendous consequences.
FMEA can be used in either quantitative or a qualitative assessments. Once the FMEA is constructed in a tabular form, the risk manager seeks appropriate points of interdiction that promise to disrupt cascading failures and break causal chains before they can become catastrophic. FMEA accommodates such interdiction through an extra column in the table that reduces the vulnerability and degree of damage caused when countermeasures or mitigation initiatives impact the dynamics and results of the chosen scenario.
FMEA failure scenarios can be prioritized based on the question - How likely is such a scenario to occur. However, such a proposition should never eliminate the low incident, high consequence scenarios from consideration.
This methodology is used frequently by engineers to dissect physical systems and contemplate a variety of scenarios whereby things can go wrong. FMEA was first used in reliability, accident or failure analysis and vulnerability assessments. FMEA has found new life in aiding scientists, operators and policy makers to improve their understanding , awareness of uncertainty and risk-based decision-making processes. It is highly adaptable to the use of subject matter experts and terrorist scenarios where the event must be declared without resort to the requirement to determine the likelihood of such a scenario. This drives the design process to meet appropriate thresholds determined by the scenarios themselves.
FMEA analyzes how serious or dangerous is the effect that can be caused by a specific component or subsystem that goes wrong. FMEA works well with cascading failures and causality. Causality can be introduced in an FMEA construct by starting with a prevailing or design envelope determined, general hazardous environment that provides the catalyst for events or incidents to occur with often serious consequences. FMEA usually bypasses the question - How likely is it expected to happen? This is convenient for analysis of highly unlikely scenarios that, should they occur, result in horrendous consequences.
FMEA can be used in either quantitative or a qualitative assessments. Once the FMEA is constructed in a tabular form, the risk manager seeks appropriate points of interdiction that promise to disrupt cascading failures and break causal chains before they can become catastrophic. FMEA accommodates such interdiction through an extra column in the table that reduces the vulnerability and degree of damage caused when countermeasures or mitigation initiatives impact the dynamics and results of the chosen scenario.
FMEA failure scenarios can be prioritized based on the question - How likely is such a scenario to occur. However, such a proposition should never eliminate the low incident, high consequence scenarios from consideration.
A Red Tailed Hawk
Such creature sublime
Alights on the Cross
Basks in Easter-time
Sunrise glorious.
Red-tailed alusion
Seems too rare for belief
Seeds our confusion
Complicates our grief.
Our souls' redemption
Only through His loss
Our contemplation
Heaven's victorious.
Alights on the Cross
Basks in Easter-time
Sunrise glorious.
Red-tailed alusion
Seems too rare for belief
Seeds our confusion
Complicates our grief.
Our souls' redemption
Only through His loss
Our contemplation
Heaven's victorious.
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